Florida’s residential real estate market has diverged sharply in 2024, with luxury properties above $1 million continuing to appreciate while mid-tier condominiums face oversupply and price declines. This split is driven by strong economic growth, tax incentives, and a steady influx of affluent buyers into South Florida, especially Miami, creating opportunities for investors and agents who understand the city’s complex dynamics.
From Retail Chain to Luxury Real Estate
Uri Sefchovich, Realtor at Coldwell Banker Luxury, brings a business-focused perspective to Miami’s high-end real estate sector. Formerly the owner of a 600-employee retail chain with over 80 stores across Mexico, Sefchovich’s transition to real estate draws on decades of commercial property experience and a robust network of high-net-worth contacts in Mexico, California, New York, and Miami.
“I have plenty of experience in commercial real estate because my company in Mexico is a commercial retail chain,” Sefchovich says. “I have a lot of experience negotiating with landlords and evaluating commercial properties.”
After relocating to Miami in 2013, Sefchovich earned his real estate license in late 2023. He quickly made his mark in the luxury segment, closing a nearly $7 million home as his first sale. Within his first year, he ranked top seller at The Keyes Aventura Office in 2024, received Rookie of the Year honors, and recently joined Coldwell Banker’s luxury team.
A Data-Driven Approach
Sefchovich distinguishes himself in Miami’s competitive market by relying on detailed market analysis. “I check market statistics all the time to have a feel of the market because the first thing you have to do is understand what’s happening in the housing market,” he says. “Solid data backs me—I check everything from economy and inflation to interest rates, mortgage rates, and basic real estate statistics like active listings and average sales.”
This analytical approach is essential in Miami, where property types and price points vary widely. Sefchovich emphasizes the need to separate single-family homes from condos, as each segment responds to distinct supply-and-demand pressures.
Luxury Market Strength and Key Drivers
Several factors are fueling Miami’s strength at the top end. Mortgage rates have fallen by nearly a whole percentage point from 2024 to 2025, easing the burden for buyers. Florida’s economic growth rate is almost double the national average, supported by business-friendly tax policies and regulatory stability.
“You see what’s going on in New York and California, those things are affecting us beneficially,” Sefchovich explains. “If you look at new out-of-state driver licenses, the numbers are growing in Miami. People are coming from other states, and they’re still coming.”
The luxury segment is mainly buoyed by recent stock market gains, with the S&P 500 rising 18% in 2024. This has increased the buying power of high-net-worth individuals, many of whom see Miami as a relative bargain compared to cities like London, Paris, or New York on a per-square-foot basis.
Miami’s Split Market
The city’s residential market is now clearly segmented. In the luxury tier above $1 million, properties are appreciating and selling quickly. Sefchovich recently listed a $20,000-per-month rental and received inquiries within a day, reflecting continued high demand at the upper end.
In contrast, the mid-tier condo market is under pressure. “If you go to condos in the $500,000 to $600,000 range, they’re going down in price because there’s a lot of supply,” Sefchovich says. The supply of condominiums has reached nearly 19 months, putting downward pressure on prices and lengthening the time on market.
At the lower end, condos priced between $200,000 and $300,000 are seeing renewed interest. Buyers who were previously concerned about aging buildings and special assessments are returning now that those issues have been addressed and the value proposition has improved.
How Wealthy Buyers Are Adapting
Affluent buyers are responding to current conditions with new strategies. About half of luxury transactions are now all-cash, allowing buyers to negotiate more aggressively and sidestep concerns about mortgage rates. Sefchovich notes a significant change in the group’s investment focus.
“I don’t see buying condos just to rent as a perfect business now because the returns are going to be very low,” he says. Instead, the most sophisticated investors are targeting land for luxury home development, focusing on sites where they can build homes valued at $8 million or more.
“People approach me wanting to buy land to build luxury homes above $8-10 million—that’s the segment where I see opportunity,” Sefchovich says. This shift reflects a move away from traditional rental strategies toward high-value development projects.
Prime Locations and Shifting Preferences
Within Miami-Dade, Sefchovich’s clients are concentrating on prime neighborhoods such as Aventura, Brickell, Miami Beach, and Coral Gables. As coastal prices climb, more buyers are moving inland in search of better value.
“Many people coming to Florida who cannot purchase near the ocean go inland and still buy there,” Sefchovich says. “For the same price, you get much more land. You can get a very nice home with a very nice pool inland.”
Single-family homes north of Miami are particularly scarce, creating opportunities for buyers who act quickly. Meanwhile, luxury markets in Coral Gables and Coconut Grove continue to attract high-end purchasers, supported by limited inventory and stable demand.
International Buyers Sustain Demand
Foreign buyers remain a significant force in Miami’s luxury market. Sefchovich estimates that 49% of new-construction buyers are international, with his own clients coming from Canada, Russia, New York, and Latin America. This steady international demand helps stabilize the high-end segment and provides a buffer against domestic market fluctuations.
Market Outlook: Stability Ahead
Looking to 2026, Sefchovich is tracking mortgage rates and inflation as the main factors influencing the market. He expects mortgage rates to settle between 5.9% and 6.1%, with inflation around 2.7%. These levels, he notes, are consistent with long-term averages.
“If you see the past 30 years, mortgage rates averaged around 6%,” he says. “We were living in a fantasy the last 5-6 years with rates below 3%. Now that people know rates will be around 6%, they’re more realistic.”
Sefchovich anticipates that this more typical rate environment will bring stability to the market. “I see a very stable 2026 compared to 2025. Nothing major is going to change—nothing major that I can see,” he concludes.
Advice for Institutional Investors
For institutional investors considering Florida residential properties, Sefchovich stresses the importance of realistic return expectations and thorough due diligence. Key considerations include insurance costs, HOA fees, and the risk of special assessments. He identifies single-family homes and luxury development as the most promising areas, rather than mid-tier rental condos.
“The number one mistake is expectations; they need to be very clear about expected returns and consider all costs, including interest rates, insurance, and realistic occupancy rates,” he advises.
Miami’s luxury residential market continues to attract sophisticated buyers seeking value compared to other global cities, supported by strong economic growth and a favorable business climate. While some segments face challenges, particularly mid-tier condos, the fundamentals remain strong for those who understand Miami’s nuanced and rapidly evolving market conditions.
UPDATE: This article has been updated to clarify statements made by the source.
