Manhattan’s residential real estate market is defying its usual seasonal slowdown, with activity surging since November and continuing through the typically quiet winter months. Ann Ferguson, principal broker and founder of Ann Ferguson LLC, a veteran Manhattan broker with 25 years of experience, says this year’s pattern stands out sharply from previous cycles.
“Usually, the fall is busy, and then the spring is busy. But this year, it became hectic in November, right at the beginning of the holidays, which has never happened before,” Ferguson says. Unlike previous years, robust buyer interest has persisted even during January’s harsh weather, signaling a shift in how and when deals get done.
A Career Shaped by Change
Ferguson entered Manhattan real estate in 1999 after a career as an international vice president of marketing in the music industry. When her company asked her to relocate to Los Angeles, she instead chose to pursue real estate after buying her own condo.
She recalls, “I thought, ‘This is an enjoyable thing to do – running around looking for apartments and finding new homes.’” The timing aligned with growing challenges in the music business due to the rise of streaming.
Today, Ferguson leads a boutique brokerage with 20 agents. She notes that “20% of the agents do 80% of the business,” with her own transactions split 70% sellers and 30% buyers, and little involvement in rentals.
Personalized Service in a Competitive Market
Ferguson’s firm differentiates itself through long-term, relationship-driven service that extends beyond closing. Rather than focusing solely on transactions, she and her team remain available for post-sale needs, including contractor referrals and renovation advice.
“We don’t just represent someone for a purchase or sale and then disappear. Even after the sale, if they need help with renovations, we can refer them to contractors. It’s full service,” she explains.
This approach results in natural connections with clients. “We may become friends with our purchasers and sellers. We’re not trying to make three thousand friends, we’re just a friendly group providing whatever they need, whether it’s nothing or everything.”
International Buyers Shake Up the Luxury Segment
One of the most noticeable trends in Ferguson’s practice this year is the influx of international buyers, particularly from China and other parts of Asia. These buyers primarily target luxury properties and often have business interests or family members in New York, including children attending local colleges.
“There’s a lot of foreign money coming in from China and Asia. I’m seeing a lot of people looking for costly apartments in the city. They want to be near their jobs, and they want their money in New York because they still have confidence in it,” Ferguson says.
Many of these international buyers are paying cash, which changes the dynamics of negotiations and closings. “A lot more people are paying cash. These European and Asian families aren’t financing. That means we can be more creative with offers, and sellers are much more negotiable because they can close quickly,” she notes.
Cash deals allow for faster, more flexible transactions, often giving international buyers an edge in competitive situations. Sellers, in turn, are more willing to entertain aggressive offers if it means certainty and speed.
Inventory and Buyer Leverage
The current market offers a wide selection of available properties, creating conditions that favor buyers. “Right now, I’m finding a lot of inventory. This is a buyer’s market,” Ferguson says.
However, the abundance of options can also slow down decision-making. “It’s easier because there’s so much out there, and buyers have a lot of choice. But it’s also complicated – buyers aren’t as motivated to act quickly because they know more listings are coming,” she explains.
Buyers are taking their time, comparing multiple properties, and waiting for the right deal. As a result, sellers must be realistic about pricing and prepared for more extended listing periods unless they are willing to negotiate.
Co-op vs. Condo: Distinct Buyer Experiences
Manhattan’s unique mix of co-ops and condos continues to shape how buyers approach the market. Co-ops, which require board approval and strict financial qualifications, typically limit buyers to about 30% of their income going toward housing costs.
“With higher interest rates, buyers could afford less. But now that rates have dropped to around 6%, people can afford more, and co-op activity has picked up,” Ferguson says.
Condos, by contrast, are seeing more all-cash buyers, especially among international clients. These buyers are less constrained by financing rules and can sidestep the rigorous approval processes that co-ops demand.
Sellers Adjust to Market Realities
Ferguson reports that sellers have primarily come to terms with the current buyer’s market. “They realize it’s a buyer’s market, and we’re very honest with them upfront. We’ll say, ‘I know you want this price, but here’s what’s realistic.’ If they’re unwilling to price accordingly, we recommend waiting to list,” she says.
This pragmatism helps avoid wasted time and keeps inventory from stagnating. Sellers who are willing to meet the market are more likely to attract serious buyers and close deals efficiently.
Why Buyers Should Act Now
Ferguson believes that the current combination of lower interest rates, abundant inventory, and motivated sellers creates a rare opportunity for buyers. “Prices are excellent now. I think now’s the perfect time to buy because prices will likely go up next year,” she predicts.
She points to renewed market activity and falling rates as signs that price appreciation could return soon. For buyers looking for value, Ferguson highlights specific neighborhoods: “South Harlem, the Upper West Side north of 96th Street, and parts of the east side are offering excellent value right now.”
Due Diligence: Beyond the Apartment
Amid favorable market conditions, Ferguson stresses the importance of thorough due diligence, especially in Manhattan’s complex building landscape. She cautions buyers to look beyond the apartment itself and examine the building’s financial health, management, and structural condition.
“You have to make sure you’re buying in a sound building. Banks won’t lend in buildings with a lot of repairs, poor maintenance, or excessive debt,” Ferguson says. She notes that lenders are scrutinizing building financials more closely, making this step critical for buyers relying on financing.
Buyers should review building documents, board meeting minutes, reserve fund statements, and recent capital projects to avoid unpleasant surprises after closing.
Looking Ahead: A Market in Motion
Ferguson expects the current momentum to carry into the spring, with prices likely to rise as demand increases. “I think we’ll see higher prices, and when prices start rising, buyers become more active – they want to buy before things get out of reach,” she says.
Her advice to buyers is clear: “Get pre-qualified quickly. Buy, don’t rent.” In her view, those who wait risk missing out on today’s favorable pricing and selection.
For Manhattan’s residential market, the winter surge has upended the old rulebook. International cash buyers, improved financing conditions, and a glut of listings have combined to create a rare window for decisive purchasers. Sellers who recognize the need for realistic pricing are well-positioned to benefit from renewed activity.
The persistence of strong demand through the winter months suggests that Manhattan’s market may be entering a new phase in which traditional seasonal patterns matter less than global capital flows and local inventory dynamics. For buyers and sellers alike, the next few months may offer opportunities not seen in years, provided they are ready to act when the right deal appears.
