The Naples real estate market is facing a sharp adjustment as post-pandemic trends subside and traditional seasonal cycles reassert themselves. A widening gap between buyer and seller expectations, rising inventory, and longer days on market are creating new complications for this luxury Florida destination, even as it continues to attract buyers from high-tax states.
The Pricing Standoff
A clear divide has emerged between what sellers hope to get and what buyers are willing to pay in Naples. Mike Shoaff, a leading agent with RE/MAX Hallmark Realty and a Hall of Fame inductee, encounters this standoff in daily negotiations.
“Buyers and sellers are still not on the same page yet,” Shoaff says. “Buyers want a deal, but every seller still wants to maximize their profit. They remember what their neighbors sold for two years ago.”
This disconnect means homes that sold for $800,000 at the market’s peak may now be worth $650,000 to $700,000, but many sellers are slow to adjust. Market data confirms this: inventory has increased 3-5% year-over-year, with resale homes now showing an 11-month supply. The average days on market for luxury properties has jumped 27% to 86 days, a notable slowdown from the fast pace of recent years.
Return to Seasonal Patterns
After years of pandemic-fueled, year-round activity, Naples is reverting to its long-standing seasonal rhythms. During 2021-2023, high demand persisted throughout the year, but that pattern has faded.
“I think everybody has forgotten, because of COVID, during the COVID times it was just busy all the time,” Shoaff notes. “Now we’re kind of back to the traditional times when things just come to a halt in the summer.”
In Naples, most sales occur between January and April, when buyers from colder states visit to shop for homes. The summer slowdown has returned, making it challenging to interpret market health solely by transaction volume in off-peak months.
“It’s like a light switch gets turned on,” Shoaff says of the seasonal surge. “One day in December or January, the phone just starts ringing.”
Buyer Demographics and Migration Patterns
Despite these challenges, Naples remains a magnet for buyers from high-tax states in the Northeast and Midwest. Shoaff reports that most out-of-state buyers are coming from New York City, Long Island, Philadelphia, Boston, Connecticut, and Chicago.
Many are selling homes in strong northern markets before moving south. “Those northeast and some of those big Midwest cities are doing really well in real estate. Their days on market are very short,” Shoaff says. “Those are the ones coming down, selling up there, and buying here.”
This creates a situation where buyers arrive with significant equity but face a Naples market with more inventory and slower sales than they experienced at home.
The Condo Challenge
The condo sector is facing particular pressure in Naples due to rising assessments and insurance costs. Recent data shows average condo prices down 8%, while single-family homes are up 3.2%.
“There have been issues with condos raising their assessments, going up by 20 to 30% and pricing a lot of people out of the market,” Shoaff explains. “A lot of older retirees are price sensitive, and on a fixed income, an extra $400 or $500 per quarter is a lot of money.”
Assessment hikes, often driven by hurricane repairs and infrastructure upgrades, have pushed monthly costs near $1,000 for some properties. These increases, on top of mortgage payments, have deterred many retirees and other traditional condo buyers.
New Construction Advantage
In contrast, new construction has become increasingly attractive. Builders are offering incentives and favorable financing that resale properties cannot match.
“There are better deals in new construction, just because the builders are offering low interest and more incentives,” Shoaff says. “A lot of people are going towards new builds right now.”
Buyers are responding to these incentives, as well as the appeal of modern amenities and the absence of unexpected assessment hikes that can affect older condos.
Geographic Preferences and Flood Concerns
Location within Naples is playing a larger role in market performance. Golf communities remain in high demand, with some private courses reporting two- to three-year waiting lists for membership. However, flood-prone areas are seeing slower activity.
“Where I still see some things not moving are the areas that were affected by flooding, and people are still concerned that may happen again,” Shoaff says. “There’s a lot of these low-lying areas closer to the water, a lot of the older construction on the first floor, if it’s a condo, that may flood again.”
Buyers are especially cautious in neighborhoods like Old Naples, where risk of flooding and property elevation are now key factors in decision-making.
Deal Dynamics and Buyer Behavior
Rising inventory has changed how deals unfold. The main reason contracts fall through is now buyer’s remorse, not financing or inspection problems.
“Because there’s so much inventory out there right now, people get buyer’s remorse once they go under contract and see a neighboring property come up that they may like better,” Shoaff says. “So they jump out of that contract during the inspection period and jump into something else.”
Constant new listings, combined with shifting news coverage about the economy and markets, have made buyers more cautious and prone to second-guessing, especially those relying on retirement savings.
Market Outlook and Investment Strategy
Looking ahead, Shoaff expects the market to stay relatively flat over the next year, favoring buyers. He remains optimistic about Naples for long-term investors.
“How I’ve always seen Naples is it’s like the S&P 500 – you have your ups and your downs, but it’s always trending upwards,” he says. “You may have your little dips and valleys, but in these four- or five-year cycles, it always ends up higher than it was five years ago.”
This outlook suggests that short-term flipping has become much riskier, while longer-term holds of five years or more still offer strong potential.
Professional Service in a Changing Market
In a slower, more complex market, experienced representation is increasingly important. Shoaff emphasizes handling every step of the process himself, rather than delegating to assistants or team members.
“There are so many agents in Naples that just get the deal, and you never hear from them again, or they hand you off to an assistant,” he says. “I always handle everything from start to finish, never handing it off to a transactional agent.”
This approach has led to 90% of his business coming from referrals, illustrating the value of consistent, hands-on service in maintaining client relationships.
As Naples adjusts to a slower pace, higher inventory, and renewed seasonality, the market is settling into a new normal. While the days of rapid appreciation and instant sales have passed, Naples remains a sought-after destination. Success now depends on realistic pricing, patience, and professional guidance to navigate a market where opportunity still exists, but only for those willing to adapt to today’s realities.
