You’ve probably seen the headlines: Airbnb is oversaturated. The short-term rental boom is over. Investors are bailing. Some of that is true, but only for a specific slice of the market.
As pandemic-era travel demand fades and inventory levels climb, the short-term rental market is dividing into two distinct tiers. Average properties in unremarkable locations are losing bookings, while high-end, experience-driven listings continue to grow revenue. Which side of that divide a property falls on now determines whether it succeeds or fails.
Joshua Briner, owner and CEO of Vibe Short Term Rental Management in the Finger Lakes region of New York, has watched this split happen in real time. His company manages over 100 properties and crossed $5 million in annual rental revenue in just four years. He’s not worried about the market cooling, because he says the properties worth worrying about probably shouldn’t have been short-term rentals in the first place.
“The big houses, the luxury houses, the lakefront houses, the cabins in the woods, the cool experiences, they are not going anywhere,” Briner says. “The top 10% of the market keeps making more and more money.”
What’s Falling Off And Why
During the pandemic, short-term rental bookings exploded. People were flush with cash, stuck at home, and desperate to escape. A spare bedroom in a suburb could suddenly generate real income on Airbnb. Investors piled in.
Then demand normalized. Properties that were never designed for the short-term rental experience, average three-bedroom houses in regular neighborhoods, offering nothing a nearby hotel couldn’t match, were the first to lose bookings.
Briner’s position is blunt: if a house sits in a regular neighborhood, sleeps six people, and offers nothing distinctive, it belongs in the long-term rental or owner-occupant market. “Get that house out of here,” he says. “Don’t make it a short-term rental.”
What’s Thriving
Properties that offer a genuine experience, large-group capacity, lakefront access, hot tubs, barrel saunas, and well-designed game rooms are seeing demand remain strong. Briner calls these “super properties,” and says there aren’t enough of them.
He uses a fast food analogy: “If there are 100 McDonald’s stores, why wouldn’t I put up a restaurant that serves filet mignon? Nobody driving to get a steak ever swerved at the last second to get a double cheeseburger.”
In the Finger Lakes specifically, he says the market remains wide open for high-quality properties. The tourist base exists. The demand exists. The supply of standout listings hasn’t caught up.
What This Means for Investors
For anyone considering a short-term rental investment, Briner’s framework is straightforward: don’t buy average and expect premium results.
The properties performing well right now share common traits: high guest capacity (16 or more), standout amenities like pools and saunas, strong interior design that photographs well, and a location that feels like a destination rather than a detour. That’s the checklist worth shopping against.
He also cautions against under-investing after purchase. Buying a property with potential but skimping on amenities undermines booking performance. A ping pong table in a garage doesn’t make a game room. A plastic lawn chair next to a fire pit doesn’t make an outdoor experience. Guests notice the difference, and platform algorithms reward properties with higher engagement and reviews.
Even when a property doesn’t generate strong cash flow immediately, short-term rental investors can access meaningful tax advantages. A strategy called cost segregation, combined with bonus depreciation, allows owners to write off 25 to 30% of the purchase price in year one, according to Briner. For investors with significant taxable income from other sources, that offset can represent substantial savings.
“A lot of people are coming to me now, comfortable not making money,” Briner says. “They want to break even, take a vacation once a year, get the tax benefit, and have someone else pay down their mortgage. When you think about it – that’s a win.”
Looking Ahead
The short-term rental market didn’t crash. It became more selective. Properties that were always marginal are now clearly struggling, while those built around a distinctive guest experience are outperforming prior years.
For buyers and investors, the relevant question is no longer whether short-term rentals work as a category, it’s whether a specific property offers something guests can’t easily find elsewhere. As supply continues to grow on major platforms, that bar will only rise. Investors who recognize this early and act accordingly will be positioned on the right side of the divide.
About the Expert: Joshua Briner is the owner and CEO of Vibe Short Term Rental Management, a property management company operating in the Finger Lakes region of New York that oversees more than 100 properties and has surpassed $5 million in annual rental revenue.
This article is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal, financial, or investment advice. The views and opinions expressed herein reflect those of the individuals quoted and do not represent an endorsement of any company, product, or service mentioned. Readers should conduct their own due diligence and consult qualified professionals before making any investment decisions.
